Sample-based science technologies in electoral campaign monitoring: statistical correlations and vote

 Sample-based science technologies in electoral campaign monitoring: statistical correlations and vote

 CReDO monitors election campaign with advanced scientific technology

The campaign prior to the parliamentary elections of January 24 is monitored by the Resource Center for Human Rights (CReDO) with the assistance of advanced scientific technology. In a news conference at IPN, CReDO director Sergiu Ostaf said it is a study of the free and fair character of the election campaign. “This research is a controlled effort made with our contribution to increase the monitoring standards and to contribute to a better understanding of the quality of the electoral process and the election campaign,” stated Sergiu Ostaf.

The study has several components: the behavior of voters; the use of administrative resources; the behavior of the media and public finances. “We would like to bring added value to the understanding of the electoral process,” noted Sergiu Ostaf. CReDO will suggest a comparative view of what is going in in Moldova and in another two countries,  Romania and Ukraine, in the same situation.

Statistical correlations will be applied to the constituency, region and country, using comparative data of the previous parliamentary elections, specifically the distribution of the vote percentage by polling places, the analysis, calculation of the correlation between participation and vote, using regression. The influence of anomalies on the vote will be estimated and a comparative inter-jurisdictional analysis of the vote on the lists and of candidates will be conducted.

The CReDO director said this method will provide a general picture of the impact of deviations and anomalies and a comparative look - retrospectively and in perspective – and also a comparative look of a number of states and the analytical localization of the risk areas that necessitate additional specific investigations.

The monitoring authors will analyze the impact of the reform of the electoral finances on transparency and reduction of undeclared costs. There will be studied the evolution of the structure of donors and the value of their contrition, including in comparison with other countries.

The CReDO will present a preliminary report before the announcement of the election results and will later make public a general report that will contain conclusions and recommendations for the Central Election Commission, the Broadcasting Coordination Council, the Constitutional Court and other public institutions.